{"id":1030,"date":"2026-03-02T13:40:40","date_gmt":"2026-03-02T13:40:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sterlingcooper.info\/blog\/?p=1030"},"modified":"2026-03-02T13:40:40","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T13:40:40","slug":"would-china-be-so-stupid-as-to-invade-taiwan-and-then-lose-everything-they-tried-to-achieve-as-a-credible-member-of-the-planet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sterlingcooper.info\/blog\/would-china-be-so-stupid-as-to-invade-taiwan-and-then-lose-everything-they-tried-to-achieve-as-a-credible-member-of-the-planet\/","title":{"rendered":"WOULD CHINA BE SO STUPID AS TO INVADE TAIWAN AND THEN LOSE EVERYTHING THEY TRIED TO ACHIEVE AS A CREDIBLE MEMBER OF THE PLANET????"},"content":{"rendered":"
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What A Taiwan Invasion Would Cost China<\/h1>\n<\/header>\n
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Shortly after meeting with Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping in late October, President Donald Trump said China would never attack Taiwan while he is president because Chinese officials \u201cknow the consequences.\u201d While support from the United States is welcome news for Taiwan, Trump\u2019s words raise a real question: Does Xi actually know the cost of invading Taiwan?<\/strong><\/p>\n

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A U.S.-made F-16V fighter jet taxis on the runway at an airforce base during the annual Han Kuang military drills in Hualien, Taiwan, on July 23, 2024. Sam Yeh\/AFP via Getty Images<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Much of the analysis of a potential Beijing attempt to seize Taiwan by force has centered on the Chinese military\u2019s capabilities and Taiwan\u2019s defenses<\/strong>, especially if supported by the United States. Many assessments conclude that the People\u2019s Liberation Army (PLA) is not currently capable of defeating the U.S. military in a direct conflict.<\/p>\n

However, analysts still warn of a worst-case scenario<\/strong> in which Xi, seeking to cement his legacy, launches a premature strike. Xi has tied his legitimacy to the \u201cChina Dream\u201d of national rejuvenation by 2049 and has framed unifying Taiwan with the mainland as essential to achieving that goal.<\/div>\n

The recent wave of purges<\/a>, particularly of senior leaders such as former Central Military Commission (CMC) Vice Chairman General Zhang Youxia, has intensified speculation. With most of the commission allegedly removed and the CMC now effectively consisting of Xi and loyalist Vice Chairman Zhang Shengmin, some analysts argue that Xi has eliminated voices that could have dissuaded him from attacking Taiwan. Even if that was not his intent, the practical result may be similar.<\/strong> With little meaningful pushback inside the system, Xi could face fewer internal constraints if he chooses to act.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The German Marshall Fund and the Rhodium Group recently published \u201cIf China Attacks Taiwan,\u201d a report examining the potential costs to Beijing of a prolonged war. The authors note they were not asked to adopt Xi\u2019s personal perspective and acknowledge that Chinese authorities could misjudge the likely consequences.<\/p>\n

Even when costs are high, national leaders sometimes proceed if perceived benefits or political pressures outweigh the risks<\/strong>. Xi could conclude that failing to act\u2014particularly if he believes Taipei is moving toward permanent separation with U.S. backing\u2014would damage his authority more than launching a risky military operation.<\/p>\n

The study examines how a conflict would affect China\u2019s economy, military capabilities, social stability, and international position. It warns that war could produce massive economic disruption, catastrophic military losses, serious social unrest, and severe sanctions. This brings the analysis back to three critical questions: What would the price of a Taiwan invasion be? Is Xi fully aware of that price? And does he care? The latter two only Xi can answer, but the first is measurable, and the potential impact on the CCP would be staggering.<\/p>\n

In the report\u2019s major war scenario, an invasion lasts several months and draws in the United States and its allies.<\/strong> The conflict begins with an amphibious assault and missile strikes on Taiwan as well as on U.S. forces in Japan and Guam. Although Chinese forces land on Taiwan, sustained Taiwanese and U.S. strikes disrupt resupply across the Taiwan Strait. After months of heavy fighting, the PLA withdraws to the mainland, having lost roughly 100,000 personnel.<\/strong> Taiwan suffers approximately 50,000 military and 50,000 civilian casualties.<\/strong> The United States loses 5,000 military personnel and 1,000 civilians, Japan loses 1,000 military personnel and 500 civilians, and the PLA retains control only of Kinmen and Matsu.<\/p>\n